What's Driving Token Prices? November 20, 2024

FOLD (-14%) - Manifold, which once promised a liquid staking product that would compete with Lido and Rocketpool, has seen its FOLD token reach an all time low the last few weeks as the founder is believed to have abandoned the project. Originally founded in 2021, Manifold was focused on helping traders avoid bots that were front running their trades. After receiving little traction they later pivoted to the liquid staking business. Despite launching a year ago, the project’s liquid staking token, mevETH, has not grown in any meaningful way (peak TVL was $36M, current TVL is ~$3M). In addition to this, the project has failed to meet deadlines and the founder, Sam Bacha, has stopped responding in the project's Telegram chat only posting memes and making jokes. As the community has grown ever more impatient with the founder, the token price has fallen: it is down -98% from its all-time high of $87 to $0.99.
DYDX (-1.3%) - On Monday, decentralized derivative exchange dYdX launched its Unlimited upgrade to its platform. The most important component of the upgrade is to allow any user to permissionlessly list new markets for trading with liquidity for these new markets sourced from a “MegaVault”. The new upgrade also launches with a new liquidity mining program offering DYDX tokens as rewards for trading alongside a referral program that offers USDC commissions based on trading volume. These changes were likely a response to dYdX’s declining dominance in the derivatives space. Over the past year, Hyperliquid has overtaken the exchange as the top venue for decentralized derivatives and currently commands 34.3% of the market while dYdX has dwindled to 8.9%.
SKY (+1.9%) - Sky (fka MakerDao) launched its USDS (fka DAI) stablecoin on Solana yesterday, marking the first step in Sky’s roadmap to expand its protocol to Solana and eventually its own chain. To incentivize bridging of USDS to Solana and the usage and distribution of the stablecoin within DeFi, Sky is offering USDS incentives through Kamino Finance, Save, Drift Protocol and Jito.
ADA/HBAR (+38%/+105%) - Late last week, a rumor started that the newly proposed Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE for short) which will be headed up by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramashwammy, was considering creating an online voting system and in conjunction with Cardano, Hedera and Hyperledger. Although no official news has been reported from any government channel, both ADA and HBAR rallied on this news after what can only be described as abysmal price performance before this time. While there is clearly no firm promise or plan, anything related to the incoming administration has certainly been a hot commodity.

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Disclaimer: This commentary is provided as general information only and is in no way intended as investment advice, investment research, legal advice, tax advice, a research report, or a recommendation. Any decision to invest or take any other action with respect to any investments discussed in this commentary may involve risks not discussed, and therefore, such decisions should not be based solely on the information contained in this document. Please consult your own financial/legal/tax professional.

Statements in this communication may include forward-looking information and/or may be based on various assumptions. The forward-looking statements and other views or opinions expressed are those of the author, and are made as of the date of this publication. Actual future results or occurrences may differ significantly from those anticipated and there is no guarantee that any particular outcome will come to pass. The statements made herein are subject to change at any time. Arca disclaims any obligation to update or revise any statements or views expressed herein. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results and there can be no assurance that any future results will be realized. Some or all of the information provided herein may be or be based on statements of opinion. In addition, certain information provided herein may be based on third-party sources, which is believed to be accurate, but has not been independently verified. Arca and/or certain of its affiliates and/or clients may now, or in the future, hold a financial interest in investments that are the same as or substantially similar to the investments discussed in this commentary. No claims are made as to the profitability of such financial interests, now, in the past or in the future and Arca and/or its clients may sell such financial interests at any time. The information provided herein is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy any securities, or a solicitation to provide investment advisory services.