
Source: TradingView, CNBC, Bloomberg, Messari
The TRUMP Token Takes Crypto For A Wild Ride
If you were fortunate enough to sleep through this weekend, you may have missed the launch of the TRUMP coin. If not, you witnessed one of the most truly bizarre and polarizing events in crypto’s young history, and possibly in capital markets history.
First, a quick recap: In conjunction with the
“Crypto Ball” on Friday, which was part of the Inauguration weekend festivities, Trump
launched a memecoin on the Solana blockchain. Many thought Trump was hacked and that this could not be real… but it was. The
TRUMP token, which consists of only 20% float (80% owned by Trump and affiliates), immediately began trading up, reaching as high as a $75 billion market cap in a matter of hours. From the initial launch, the token was up roughly 30,000%. To put this into perspective, the gains for early buyers outpaced the S&P 500's return since 1971, or 54 years of S&P 500 returns. Even though Trump himself has a 3-year lockup before he can sell any tokens, his net worth is estimated to rise 400% to ~$28 billion, up from $5.6 billion in November 2024.

The trading volumes on this token were enormous, and it sent the Solana (SOL) token much higher as well (up almost 40% over the weekend at one point). Part of the SOL rally may be attributable to actual bullishness on SOL after the incoming President decided to use the Solana blockchain, and part of this was because you needed to swap into SOL in order to buy the TRUMP token, and weekend liquidity is so bad that SOL skyrocketed higher. Moonshot was featured on the Trump website as the best way to buy the TRUMP token, and powered one of the most significant onboarding events in crypto history,
onboarding over 400,000 new users to blockchain.
Of course, when something goes up that fast, it inevitably falls, and that’s exactly what happened on Sunday when
Melania launched her own memecoin. This sucked liquidity away from TRUMP token and into MELANIA token, ultimately clogging the Solana blockchain sending SOL back down 20%, and sent crypto Twitter into an absolute tailspin, with many arguing that Trump just killed crypto with these exploitative launches.
Let’s make sense of this roller coaster of emotions
Ok… that was a lot. Even as I write it, it sounds made up. But alas, it was real. So let’s try to make sense of all of this.
To start, it helps to understand that crypto market participants were already on pins and needles heading into this weekend’s inauguration. President-elect Donald Trump included some crypto-related regulatory reforms in his list of
100 potential “day-one” executive orders. A Reuters article recently suggested that the new SEC leadership will “
kick start a crypto overhaul,” potentially putting some enforcement cases on hold. And there is a lot of speculation that Trump will begin speaking about a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve during his inauguration. So when you combine this angst with this TRUMP token drop, emotional reactions are to be expected.
But let’s not forget that Trump was the president once before. And if you recall, from 2016-2020, Trump (as President),
moved equity, commodity, debt and currency markets nearly every week with random Tweets and off-the-cuff comments. He was the first President to use Twitter and social media, and markets did not know how to handle this. But, it rarely affected crypto markets because Trump didn’t care about crypto back then, so most crypto investors either don’t remember this or weren’t even in crypto during this period. So what we saw this weekend is just a preview of what we will see for the next four years – unpredictable volatility.
This weekend, in particular, the market lost its damn mind over the TRUMP coin and completely missed the plot. While the TRUMP coin itself is just another example of Trump doing Trump things, there is an obvious case for why this will be incredibly long-term bullish for the industry (and it has nothing to do with the TRUMP coin itself).
The pushback for 3+ years from potential token issuers and potential investors in the U.S. has been “regulatory concerns”. This is completely eradicated when the President is both a token issuer and a token investor. If you’re still using this as a crutch, your negative bias is clouding reality.
Now, just because the President issued a memecoin doesn’t mean the entire world will only focus solely on memecoins. Trump validated the technology yet introduced only one use case of the technology. Potential issuers and investors can see beyond this limited use case. Two things can be true at the same time:
- Many businesses/projects launched via blockchain technology are in current (or future) useful sectors of the economy (finance, gaming, AI, telecom, data, etc).
- Memecoins are fun, but achieve a different goal (gambling and monetization of brands)
Not everything built with similar technology has to be lumped together.
The internet boom started with “dot-coms”- companies that only existed because the invention of the internet and web browsers enabled their existence. But most of these companies failed. The Internet only grew when non-internet native companies began using the Internet, too. No,w every company is a “dot-com”. Walmart, Domino’s Pizza, JP Morgan, etc — all “dot.coms”. But of course, no one calls them dot-coms anymore because it’s no longer a unique qualifier. You are out of business if you are not a dot-com in 2025.
TRUMP token signaled to every company, municipality, university and individual brand that crypto and blockchain can now be used as a capital formation and customer bootstrapping mechanism. We’ve been
writing and speaking about this inevitability for nearly a decade, and it’s about to come true. Soon:
- NYC will have a token that gives tokenholders discounts on buses and subways, fast pass at LGA and JFK, and maybe even a dividend if the city has a surplus
- Harvard will have a token that boosters and donors will get when they donate, and purchasers can use for tuition or trade it for Yale token.
- Netflix will have a token that gives you 20% of top line revenues, grants you discounts on your membership, and gives you a day or two advanced screening of new movies and shows.
All of this will happen in this new crypto-friendly environment ushered in by the president of the United States. Shareholders don’t care about customers, and customers don’t care if the company succeeds because there is no alignment between shareholders and customers. Crypto can change this. It gives customers part quasi-equity ownership and part customer rewards all in one tradable, liquid vehicle.
We have now officially left the “dot-crypto” phase of blockchain. All of the existing crypto use cases are from crypto-native companies, but going forward, the whole world will devise creative ways to issue and utilize tokens. We even
predicted the TRUMP token 3 years ago. This is not shocking at all. Crypto allows him to monetize his enormous brand and follow in previously impossible ways. Once this shift from “dot-crypto” happens, many of the current useless tokens and projects will die, but the biggest and best will thrive with millions of new investors, issuers, and users. You must pitch token ideas to clients if you're an investment banker. There is no excuse anymore not to be thinking outside the box regarding capital formation and fundraising. The President himself just did it.
Calling all investment bankers! Stop being lazy and recognize what a goldmine your clients are sitting on if they choose to monetize it.
Now, the immediate price action and reaction this weekend suggest that crypto is now a joke, and the only winner will be the blockchain that issues joke tokens (SOL). But that’s short-sighted and a circumstance of weekend illiquidity more than anything. And those calling this the “top of the cycle” have lost their damn minds. PTSD is real, and so many crypto traders have been irreversibly damaged by 2022 that they can’t even fathom what is about to come in a crypto-friendly environment. I know because I’ve been there. Anecdotally, it took me 3 years after the 2008 financial crisis to go all-in-long equities again. The psychological damage from bear markets is real. Crypto people don’t even realize how damaged they are from 2022. Almost all of them are too conservative now. They’ve forgotten how to make life-changing money. And all they can think about is, “When is the music going to stop?”.
It isn’t going to stop. In fact, the President of the United States of America just signed up to DJ for the next 4 years and beyond.
So in conclusion, while I don’t care much for meme coins or the TRUMP token myself, I do care a lot about future blockchain use cases. And the President of the USA just green-lit all future possibilities. Memecoins are cute; but they are not all that blockchain offers.
The reality is Trump is, and always has been, an incredibly polarizing human being. More likely, the TRUMP coin did not change anyone’s views. As Trump usually does, he simply reinforced people's preconceived views. If you loved SOL, you can now say that Trump loves SOL. If you love ETH, you can say that Trump’s World Liberty Financial project is built on Ethereum, and he is buying ETH-based assets. If you love Bitcoin, you can say that Trump will measure his Presidency by the price of Bitcoin. If you hate crypto, you can say that Trump reinforces that crypto is a joke.
The reality is, I don’t think anyone is even mad about the crypto component of TRUMP token and the instantaneous gains it created for a select few. I think people are more mad that the TRUMP token simply points out the current state of society, and the monetization of popularity. And these examples go far beyond crypto. The Hawk Tuah girl turned 15-minutes of Fame into a Top 5 podcast. Only Fans girls can rake in more money on a weekend than a well-trained actress can earn in her entire career. The attention economy and influencer world that we live in is demeaning to hard-working folks, and crypto is simply the best tool available currently to monetize this.
For example, some crypto participants felt helpless that all their hard work growing this industry has been reduced to a Presidential memecoin. Here’s a
good summary of the collective feelings of many participants in this industry. One crypto investor said,
“This is a big signal that building a company doesn’t matter. Why waste your time? Imagine slaving for 6-12 months trying to raise a seed round and building a business when some 16-year-old playing Fortnite bought $50 of TRUMP and made $1 million? The societal degradation and apathy towards meritocracy and capitalism could be really hurt here.” Another crypto investor said,
“I really thought we’d get a good regulatory framework to allow tokens from real companies to provide real value and bring back fundamental investing via viable products and services, and this just feels like the antithesis of that.”
This has nothing to do with crypto. This is a reflection of society.
But Trump did not kill crypto. When Trump launched his own steaks, he didn't ruin steakhouses. When Trump launched his own college, he didn't ruin colleges. When Trump bankrupted multiple casinos, he didn't ruin gambling. Trump is simply an expert at exploiting loopholes for his benefit. Remember during the 2016 election when Hillary Clinton thought she nailed Trump with a “gotcha” about him using loopholes to pay taxes? His
response was perfect. He will continue to use the loopholes if they exist, and it is Congress’ job to get rid of the loopholes if you don’t want him and others, to exploit them.
The digital assets asset class is about to get much bigger, much crazier, much more sophisticated and much dumber at the same time. However, the asset class is not a joke just because a few dumb examples exploit this asset class. If that were true:
- Equities would also be a joke because of Gamestop (GME), Bed Bath & Beyond (BBY) and numerous SPACs
- Fixed income would be a joke because of Caesar’s holdco debt, CDS-squared, Argentina bonds, and Austrian 100-year bonds.
- Real estate would be a joke because of the Las Vegas boom in 2008, timeshares, and uninsured homes in the Palisades.
- Currencies would be a joke because of Wampum and the Euro
You don’t measure an asset class by its worst components. You measure it by the totality of what it offers.
This industry, and the loud-mouthed naysayers, cannot keep freaking out every time a single use case destroys an image of what the crypto asset class can and should be. And the TRUMP token, love it or hate it, is ultimately irrelevant by itself. What matters is that we just ushered in a new era of token launches. And you will soon see why tokens are the greatest capital formation and customer bootstrapping mechanism ever created.