--- title: "CLARITY's Home Stretch: Separating the Signal From the Screenshots" description: This week's Two Satoshis cuts through the noise surrounding the CLARITY Act, examining its true legislative status, debunking recent fabrications, and assessing the SEC's emerging role as regulators move ahead. image: https://www.ar.ca/hubfs/_Two%20sats%20July%2013%202026.png --- [![email-sig-logowhite](https://www.ar.ca/hs-fs/hubfs/email-sig-logowhite.png?width=102&height=96&name=email-sig-logowhite.png "email-sig-logowhite")](https://www.ar.ca/) [![Get in Touch](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/4536350/28ac2c2f-186c-436f-9682-1169cf946ad3.png)](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/4536350/28ac2c2f-186c-436f-9682-1169cf946ad3) ** ** ** [![Arca](https://www.ar.ca/hs-fs/hubfs/arca_square_576x576.png?width=60&height=30&name=arca_square_576x576.png "Arca")](https://www.ar.ca/) [![Get in Touch](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/4536350/28ac2c2f-186c-436f-9682-1169cf946ad3.png)](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/4536350/28ac2c2f-186c-436f-9682-1169cf946ad3) ** ** ** Search **Menu** ** ** [![Data Room](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/4536350/72e2934a-0f70-4634-897e-b99fd4807a9b.png)](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/4536350/72e2934a-0f70-4634-897e-b99fd4807a9b) [![Get in Touch](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/4536350/28ac2c2f-186c-436f-9682-1169cf946ad3.png)](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/4536350/28ac2c2f-186c-436f-9682-1169cf946ad3) ![](https://www.ar.ca/hubfs/Blog/Thats%20Our%202%20Satoshis/Branding/2-Sats-Header.png) [Market Recap](https://www.ar.ca/blog/tag/market-recap) | # CLARITY's Home Stretch: Separating the Signal From the Screenshots [![Jeff Dorman, CFA](https://www.ar.ca/hubfs/Jeff%20Dorman.png)](https://www.ar.ca/blog/author/jeff-dorman-cfa) Written by [Jeff Dorman, CFA](https://www.ar.ca/blog/author/jeff-dorman-cfa) Jul 13, 2026 ******![Thats Our 2 Satoshis Logo](https://www.ar.ca/hs-fs/hubfs/Thats%20Our%202%20Satoshis%20Logo.png?width=300&name=Thats%20Our%202%20Satoshis%20Logo.png)****** ![Wow Screenshot 2026-07-13 105745](https://www.ar.ca/hs-fs/hubfs/Wow%20Screenshot%202026-07-13%20105745.png?width=712&height=466&name=Wow%20Screenshot%202026-07-13%20105745.png) *Source: TradingView, CNBC, Bloomberg, Messari*   ***Guest Edition — Written by David Nage, Managing Director, Portfolio Manager*** A month ago in this space, I told you we [were 85% of the way to a crypto market-structure law](https://www.ar.ca/blog/the-clarity-acts-last-fight-isnt-about-crypto), and that the last 15% was a political problem wearing a policy costume, and that the way through was to make the ethics ban *bigger*, not narrower. I stand by all of that. But a month is a long time in Washington, and two things have happened since: the politics got harder, and the internet responded by inventing an entire bill that does not exist. Before we get to where things actually stand — the real draft, the real calendar, the real to-do list — I need to clear some rubble because the noise right now is genuinely dangerous for anyone trying to make decisions based on it. **First, What's Fake** If you've been on Crypto Twitter this week, you may have seen an official-looking image of a signed "Public Law," complete with an eagle seal, a June 18 date, and Donald Trump's signature, captioned "It's happening." You may have seen "CLARITY Act 2.0 just got released." You may have seen a tidy, confident calendar — Senate floor vote July 13–17, House reconciliation July 20–24, presidential signature by August 7 — and a screenshot of a Senate tally board reading "YEA 60, NAY 40, H.R. 3633." None of that is real. The CLARITY Act has not been signed into law. There is no Public Law. The "signed" image is a fabrication. There has been no Senate floor vote — the "60-40" board is fake, and H.R. 3633 is the *House* bill, which passed a year ago, in July 2025, by a vote of 294–134, not 60–40. "CLARITY 2.0" has not been released; as I'll explain, a new draft *may* drop next week, which is a very different sentence. And the day-by-day timeline circulating with such authority is someone's guess dressed up as a schedule. No floor vote is on the calendar. No date has been set. One number you'll see repeated everywhere — including in coverage that should know better — is that the bill needs *seven* Democrats to cross over. That math holds only if all 53 Republicans vote yes, and they won't. Rand Paul (on federal-overreach grounds) and Josh Hawley (who voted *no* on the GENIUS stablecoin bill and approaches this from the populist, anti-Wall-Street side) are both likely no votes. Knock those two off, and Republicans deliver around 51, which means the real ask is closer to **nine** Democratic crossovers, not seven — from a caucus where, again, zero are committed today. It's not a fatal difference, but "just seven" makes an already-steep climb sound easier than it is. I'm not being pedantic. When a lobby, a trader, or a founder starts making moves off a screenshot of a bill that was never signed, real money gets lost. So let's replace the fiction with what the actual reporting says. **What's Actually True Right Now** Here is the real news, and it *is* news. According to[CoinDesk's Jesse Hamilton and Nikhilesh De](https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/07/09/newest-version-of-crypto-clarity-act-may-drop-as-soon-as-next-week-sources-say), people following the effort expect a **new, merged draft of the CLARITY Act to emerge as soon as next week** — the week of July 13. This version would finally combine the Senate Banking and Senate Agriculture Committee texts into one bill, reportedly adding[more than 70 pages of new material](https://www.cryptotimes.io/2026/07/10/new-clarity-act-draft-set-to-drop-next-week-as-senate-eyes-july-20-floor-vote/) with a heavier emphasis on consumer protections. Advocates are eyeing possible floor action **as soon as the week of July 20**. That's the good news, and it's why the hype machine is running hot. Here's the part the hype leaves out, verbatim from the reporting: the draft **still lacks bipartisan buy-in**. Democrats have not agreed to it. The White House has not signed off on the merged text and, tellingly,[did not participate in the most recent round of negotiations](https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/07/09/newest-version-of-crypto-clarity-act-may-drop-as-soon-as-next-week-sources-say). And you still need 60 votes — which, for the reasons above, likely means around nine Democrats, not the seven you'll see quoted — to break a filibuster. As of today, the number of Democrats publicly committed to voting yes is zero. Even Ruben Gallego and Angela Alsobrooks, the two Democrats who voted the bill *out of committee*, have said their support on the floor depends on the ethics fix. A draft drop is a real milestone. It is not the same as the votes existing. Both things are true at once, but only one of them is trending. **What Still Has to Get Reconciled to Reach a Cloture Vote** This is the part I most want people to internalize, because "the draft is coming" gets misread as "we're basically done." We are not. Here is the actual list of what has to close before this can survive a 60-vote cloture motion: 1. **The merged text itself.** Banking + Agriculture, one bill. This is what is expected next week. Call it the closest to done. 2. **Ethics.** Still the wall, still unresolved, and — as I wrote last month — still the one thing that isn't really about crypto. The June negotiations collapsed over enforcement, the[Van Hollen amendment died 13–11](https://www.coinspeaker.com/senate-kills-ethics-amendment-clarity-act/) on procedural grounds, and after the President's own financial disclosure landed (with family crypto income estimated in the[$1.4 billion range](https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/07/05/clarity-and-congress-s-summer-break-state-of-crypto)), Democratic demands hardened rather than softened. No ethics deal, no crossover Democrats. Full stop. 3. **Federal preemption.** The merged draft reportedly reopens the question of how much state-level authority survives once a federal framework exists. Unsettled. 4. **SEC and CFTC staffing.** This has some reporting making it appear as a new Democratic demand — it isn't. The Securities Exchange Act of 1934 already caps the number of commissioners from one party at three and requires that appointments alternate between parties. A bipartisan commission is the law, not a bargaining chip. But the SEC has been run by three commissioners, all Republicans, since Caroline Crenshaw left in January; two seats are statutorily reserved for Democrats and remain vacant. On July 9, the[ White House sent Thune and Schumer a letter](https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/07/09/newest-version-of-crypto-clarity-act-may-drop-as-soon-as-next-week-sources-say) saying Democrats hadn't submitted names, while Democrats accuse the administration of refusing to engage on nominees. And the Supreme Court's June 29 ruling in *Trump v. Slaughter* — allowing the President to remove independent-agency commissioners at will — quietly *weakened* the Democrats' leverage on this task. 5. **DeFi and law enforcement (BRCA).** Senator Ron Wyden[sent a letter this week](https://www.cryptotimes.io/2026/07/10/new-clarity-act-draft-set-to-drop-next-week-as-senate-eyes-july-20-floor-vote/) supporting the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act's developer protections — a small, genuine sign of momentum. But Wyden co-authored that provision; he was never the problem. The senators who gate on it, like Cortez Masto and Warner, are tied to *law enforcement's* comfort, and several major law enforcement groups remain unconvinced. Only after those close do you get to the vote everyone's already celebrating. **The Real Calendar** Forget the fabricated timeline. Here are the dates that actually matter: - The Senate returns from its July 4 recess on **July 13**. - The merged draft is expected **as soon as the week of July 13**. - Advocates are targeting floor action **as soon as the week of July 20** — though nothing is scheduled yet. - **August 7** is the last day of the Senate term before the summer recess. This is the real deadline. Once members leave, the campaign swallows everything. - The chamber reconvenes for a few weeks in **September**, but as[ Beacon Policy Advisors put it](https://www.coindesk.com/news-analysis/2026/06/22/in-clarity-act-s-final-weeks-its-path-through-u-s-senate-not-getting-much-clearer), the Senate really needs to pass this before the August recess because incentives shift around the midterms, and the odds of it becoming law *at all* diminish significantly if it slips. The bill needs up to a week of floor time. Do the math on a three-week July window, and you see why "as soon as the week of July 20" leaves almost no margin. **The Rest of the Senate's To-Do List** CLARITY does not have the floor to itself. Before the August gavel, the Senate is also wrestling with a national-security/FISA fight (tangled up in a battle over Trump appointments), the[FY2027 National Defense Authorization Act](https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/07/05/clarity-and-congress-s-summer-break-state-of-crypto), and government funding ahead of the September 30 cliff. Crucially, the Senate Agriculture Committee — a central player in moving CLARITY — has its own bigger priority in the **farm bill**. There's also a live effort by the gaming industry to inject prediction-market language into the crypto bill, which would only complicate it further. One competitor did clear the floor — the bipartisan housing bill passed both chambers with veto-proof margins (85–5 in the Senate). But its aftermath is the real tell. Rather than sign a popular bill he likes, the President[refused to sign it as a protest](https://www.npr.org/2026/07/10/nx-s1-5885027/housing-bill-without-trump-signature), demanding that the Senate first pass his unrelated SAVE America Act voting bill; the housing measure is set to become law tonight anyway, automatically, without his signature. Two things in that episode bear directly on CLARITY: a President willing to hold bills hostage to unrelated demands, and a filibuster fight over the SAVE Act that is consuming the very floor time and Republican leadership goodwill that a 60-vote crypto bill depends on. Even a Senate-passed CLARITY would still face a House[ slowed by Republican infighting](https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/07/09/newest-version-of-crypto-clarity-act-may-drop-as-soon-as-next-week-sources-say) before it could reach the President's desk. **Meanwhile, the SEC Is Quietly Doing the Job Anyway** Here's the development that I think deserves far more attention than a fake signature image: while Congress stalls, regulators are building the framework themselves — and the timing is not a coincidence. On July 7, SEC Chairman Paul Atkins published an updated regulatory agenda that[pencils in three crypto rulemakings for July](https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/07/07/u-s-sec-to-propose-crypto-rule-as-soon-as-this-month-to-ease-startups-fundraising): rules for crypto asset offerings (the "Regulation Crypto" innovation exemption), broker-dealer requirements, and crypto market-structure amendments for trading venues. The centerpiece exemption would give startups a registration off-ramp, allow capped fundraising, and — most consequentially — establish an **investment-contract safe harbor** confirming that a token stops being a security once its issuer has stepped back from essential managerial efforts. It builds directly on the SEC-CFTC joint taxonomy from March and would make that principle a binding rule rather than reversible guidance. Now connect the dots. Atkins has[openly acknowledged](https://en.cryptonomist.ch/2026/07/08/sec-crypto-safe-harbor-july/) that CLARITY's uncertain status shaped the timing of his own rules. Read that the other way and it's striking: as it becomes clearer that Congress may not deliver before the window closes, the agencies are moving to fill the vacuum — and Atkins is explicitly[racing to publish a durable *formal rule*](https://www.mexc.com/news/1200728), precisely because guidance can be undone by a memo but a finalized rule is more difficult to. This does two things at once, and they cut in opposite directions. It provides the industry with real, usable patterns and frameworks — a safe harbor for DeFi and tokenized securities — *without* waiting for a statute. And in doing so, it quietly hands fence-sitting senators a rationale to not spend scarce political capital on a bruising ethics fight: if the agencies are already drawing the lines, why absorb a 30-second attack ad in an election year? The administrative track is a potential pressure-release valve on the legislative one. But — and this is the whole point — the agencies themselves will tell you this is a *bridge, not a destination*. Everything Atkins builds by rule can, in principle, be unwound by a future commission through another multi-year rulemaking. The reason the industry still wants CLARITY is to lock the framework into statute so it survives the next administration. So the SEC's progress is genuinely good news for how crypto operates day to day, and genuinely *bad* news for the bill's urgency. Both, again, at once. **My Read** The substance of the crypto market structure is still, as I said last month, largely finished. What's changed since June is not the policy — it's that the politics got heavier (the disclosure, a disengaged White House, the gravitational pull of the midterms) and the misinformation got louder. The base case I'd give you honestly today is a coin flip at best for 2026, gated almost entirely on whether an ethics framework materializes, with prediction markets sitting in the low-to-mid 40s on a full-year basis and the pre-recess window priced in the low teens — which sounds about right to me. The tell to watch over the next two weeks is concrete: does the merged text actually drop, does a real ethics compromise surface alongside it, and does leadership put a floor week on the board before August 7? If all three happen, the optimists are right, and this moves fast. If we get to late July with a draft but no ethics deal and no floor date, the practical 2026 window closes, and "next Congress" starts to shade into "next decade." Either way, do not put weight into this fake signed bill, July 13, malformed content, and do not buy the "it's already dead" nihilism either. The truth is less satisfying than either meme: it's a real, narrowing window, the hardest 15% is still the ethics fight, and — quietly, reversibly — the regulators are already doing a version of the job while Washington argues about the rest. **Sources & Further Reading** - CoinDesk —[New merged draft may drop as soon as next week; still lacks bipartisan buy-in (Jul 9)](https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/07/09/newest-version-of-crypto-clarity-act-may-drop-as-soon-as-next-week-sources-say) - CryptoTimes —[New draft set to drop; Senate eyes July 20 floor vote; open items (Jul 10)](https://www.cryptotimes.io/2026/07/10/new-clarity-act-draft-set-to-drop-next-week-as-senate-eyes-july-20-floor-vote/) - CoinDesk —[State of Crypto: Clarity and Congress's summer break; Aug 7 deadline, NDAA, House factor (Jul 5)](https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/07/05/clarity-and-congress-s-summer-break-state-of-crypto) - CoinDesk —[Clarity's path not getting clearer; the Senate to-do list (Jun 22)](https://www.coindesk.com/news-analysis/2026/06/22/in-clarity-act-s-final-weeks-its-path-through-u-s-senate-not-getting-much-clearer) - CoinDesk —[SEC to propose "Regulation Crypto" as soon as this month (Jul 7)](https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/07/07/u-s-sec-to-propose-crypto-rule-as-soon-as-this-month-to-ease-startups-fundraising) - Cryptonomist —[SEC crypto safe harbor slated for July; Atkins ties timing to CLARITY (Jul 8)](https://en.cryptonomist.ch/2026/07/08/sec-crypto-safe-harbor-july/) - CoinDesk —[House version: H.R. 3633 passed 294–134 in July 2025 (context)](https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/05/14/live-senate-banking-committee-holds-key-hearing-to-advance-clarity-act) - Coinspeaker —[Van Hollen ethics amendment fails 13–11](https://www.coinspeaker.com/senate-kills-ethics-amendment-clarity-act/) - NPR —[Housing bill becomes law without Trump's signature amid SAVE Act standoff (Jul 10)](https://www.npr.org/2026/07/10/nx-s1-5885027/housing-bill-without-trump-signature) ***And That’s Our Two Satoshis!***       *Thanks for reading everyone! Questions or comments, just let us know.*   **The Arca Portfolio Management Team** *Jeff Dorman, CFA - Chief Investment Officer* *Katie Talati - Director of Research* *Sasha Fleyshman - Portfolio Manager* *David Nage - Portfolio Manager* *Wes Hansen - Director of Trading and Operations* *Alex Woodard - Associate, Research* *Christopher Macpherson - Research Analyst* *Andrew Masotti - Associate, Trading and Operations* *Joey Reinberg, Associate, Trading and Operations*     **To learn more or talk to us about investing in digital assets and cryptocurrency** **call us now at [(424) 289-8068](tel:+14242898068).** ### Subscribe For the Latest Blockchain News & Analysis     Disclaimer: The views expressed here are those of the author, and is not investment advice. This commentary is provided as general information only and is in no way intended as investment advice, investment research, legal advice, tax advice, a research report, or a recommendation. Any decision to invest or take any other action with respect to any investments discussed in this commentary may involve risks not discussed, and therefore, such decisions should not be based solely on the information contained in this communication. Please consult your own financial/legal/tax professional. Statements in this communication may include forward-looking information and/or may be based on various assumptions. The Arca Funds, its affiliates, and/or clients may hold a position in any investment discussed as part of this communication, where any such investment is based on Arca’s proprietary research analytics. Actual future results or occurrences may differ significantly from those anticipated and there is no guarantee that any particular outcome will come to pass. The statements made in this commentary are subject to change at any time. Arca disclaims any obligation to update or revise any statements or views expressed in this commentary. 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