Signal to Noise 002: Jack, Morningstar, Chicago, Vays & Hayes predictions

David Nage
Mar 22, 2019
Welcome to the second edition of Signal to Noise where I attempt to break down the headline news of the week and put it into two piles:
  • Signal: denoting it may affect and incite action in the crypto market & ecosystem
  • Noise: denoting material which interferes with said action, but yet seem to take up our attention & mental space.
A quick note: The content provided in Signal to Noise is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained in this blog constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer by Arca to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in this or in in any other jurisdiction.

In this section you can anticipate a focus on news and research focused on Institutional Investors investing & focusing on crypto, products/platforms shipping and launching, Corporations getting involved in the ecosystem, job moves into crypto and much more.
  1.  Just Jack: now to be fair, a lot of people have been bringing this up as a very positive thing for the crypto universe, and they are all correct. I wanted to add a little more context to why this is important: Square is a publicly traded company with a market cap of $32B; Twitter (oh yea that other company Jack runs, has a market cap of $26B. The CEO of two publicly traded companies with a company market cap comparable to companies like Blackrock, TMobile and others is hiring and talking quite bullish in and around Bitcoin. No, this is not his first time doing so, especially this year, but the continued focus on this topic from a person who probably doesn’t have a ton of “free time” (see running two publicly traded companies) is compelling.Screen Shot 2019-03-22 at 10.24.52 AM
  2. CoinMarketCap Crypto Indices Launch on Nasdaq, Bloomberg, Reuters: Why is this important? Bloomberg has over 325,000 thousand financial professionals using their Terminal daily; it’s the gold standard - hundreds of billions if not trillions of dollars moving through those machines daily. The Treasurers of the largest corporations of the world use it daily. The more information they put on their platform regarding the crypto markets, the more it becomes “real” to those not currently in that camp.
  3. Commonwealth, a startup offering a new twist on token airdrops has raised $2 million led by 1confirmation, Canaan Partners and former Polychain partner Ryan Zurrer. Why is this important? Again, context is important: Canaan Partners, referred to as the “brainchild” of Jack Welch, the former chairman and CEO of General Electric, was the first iteration of General Electric Capital over 30 years ago. Seeing more traditional firms like Canaan in projects like Commonwealth shows me more eyes are taking a look at what’s happening in crypto.
  4. Cambridge Associates writing about venturing into Crypto was big; it looks like Morningstar decided to come for the ride as well in their report: Blockchain Observer; thanks to my colleague Jeff Dorman for picking this one up:
Blockchain is full of promise. Investment in the space totals billions of dollars. Large corporations, venture capital funds, and initial coin offerings are funding projects. The activity is not completely misguided; blockchains have the potential to disrupt economic activities ranging from simple payments to the structure of a corporation as it currently exists.



In this section you can anticipate a focus on news and research that does not discuss building, investors coming into the ecosystem via investment or careers, but rather focuses on price, predictions of price and more.

  1. Tone Vays Believes Bitcoin Will Tip the Scales to $6,000 in Coming Days: Break Out Rally Could Help Bitcoin Scale $6000: Vays, a former JP Morgan VP, believes that a positive price rally is in the cards for the near future. If growth continues, market momentum could push the price up to $5,000 or even $6,000. Vays says that if bitcoin can break above $4200, he expects ‘a thousand-point breakout to the upside’ but admits that that's where the short-term bull market will end’. I do think we can break out on the price and go as high as $5000, possibly even as high as $6000, but I still think we will see lower lows sub $3000 prices sometime this year,’ he added.
  2. “Bitcoin Is in the Dumps, Spreading Gloom Over Crypto World”: According to Paul Vigna “Bitcoin is in the longest slump of its 10-year history. That is forcing even its most ardent supporters to shelve dreams of global disruption and focus on simply tightening their belts long enough to outlast the downturn.” According to Vigna and the like, Bitcoin died approximately 10 times in the last few years - makes me wonder if Bitcoin is actually a cat because every time it dies it seems to continue living on. I find the phrase “shelving dreams” interesting as well - didn’t Bakkt just raise $182M dollars at a $700M Series A?
  3. Now I saw folks talking this one up: “Cryptocurrency adoption is inevitable in the future, says Chicago’s Mayor Rahm Emanuel” -- at first sure, this could be in the Signal section. But upon further reading of his quote I found this telling: 


The trend lines are affirmative for its future. I don’t know if that’s ten years, and I don’t know if that’s 20 years, but it’s affirmative. I don’t know what it is. I know it’s an alternative way to trade, and therefore, I gotta learn about it, and I gotta be honest, as mayor, it’s not the top 100 things I would have to learn about.

Fair point but it doesn’t sound like things are “inevitable” -- more like a long time coming.





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