What's Driving Token Prices? January 28, 2026

Katie Talati
Jan 29, 2026

Join Katie Talati, Arca’s Head of Research, weekly on Wednesday at 4PM EST / 1PM PST as she shares notable token activity over the past week and her insights on what market events drove these token price movements.



  • AVAX (-3.8%) - On Monday, the first ETF for the Avalanche Layer-1 blockchain launched. The ETF, sponsored by VanEck, will also give investors exposure to staking rewards alongside spot price appreciation of the AVAX token. Launched in 2020, Avalanche is an EVM-compatible Layer-1 blockchain that as of late has focused on hosting tokenized assets and bridging the gap between traditional finance and the on-chain economy. 

  • AXS (+1.5%) - Last week, AXS, the token in the Axie Infinity gaming ecosystem, shot up after news that it had revamped its tokenomics. At the beginning of 2026, Sky Mavis, the developer of Axie Infinity, announced it would halt the issuance of Smooth Love Potion (SLP) in one area of its game. Additionally, the team introduced bonded AXS (bAXS), so any AXS earned within the game is non-transferable. Both of these changes are aimed at curbing the “farm and dump” behavior pattern as SLP and AXS are earned in-game. Axie Infinity, at its peak in 2021, had over 2.7M daily active users and saw its AXS token soar to $157. Since then, the game has lost much of its initial appeal as farming bots have overrun the product, and game updates have been slower to ship than expected. The new tokenomics changes mark an aggressive shift in the project’s direction as the team attempts to right the ship.

  • RIVER (+12%) - Last week, a little-known DeFi project, River, received an investment from Tron founder Justin Sun, which caused the token's price to double overnight. River, which builds cross-chain stablecoin infrastructure, announced last week that Sun had invested $8M in the project to bring its deployments to the Tron blockchain, its associated DeFi products, and stablecoins. Maelstrom Capital (Arthur Hayes’s firm) and Spartan Group also invested in River, and the project spent the past week on a partnership blitz with listings on major exchanges such as Binance, OKX, and HTX (formerly Huobi). Some have voiced concern about the project’s meteoric rise. According to data from CoinGlass, open interest on RIVER was over 80 times its spot volume, indicating that the perpetual futures market is influencing the spot price of RIVER, not organic spot buying. The token is up +11.9% in the last week but up 810% in the past month. 

DISCLAIMER: This commentary is not intended to be investment advice, investment research, or a recommendation. Please consult your investment professional for your own circumstances.

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Disclaimer: This commentary is provided as general information only and is in no way intended as investment advice, investment research, legal advice, tax advice, a research report, or a recommendation. Any decision to invest or take any other action with respect to any investments discussed in this commentary may involve risks not discussed, and therefore, such decisions should not be based solely on the information contained in this document. Please consult your own financial/legal/tax professional.

Statements in this communication may include forward-looking information and/or may be based on various assumptions. The forward-looking statements and other views or opinions expressed are those of the author, and are made as of the date of this publication. Actual future results or occurrences may differ significantly from those anticipated and there is no guarantee that any particular outcome will come to pass. The statements made herein are subject to change at any time. Arca disclaims any obligation to update or revise any statements or views expressed herein. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results and there can be no assurance that any future results will be realized. Some or all of the information provided herein may be or be based on statements of opinion. In addition, certain information provided herein may be based on third-party sources, which is believed to be accurate, but has not been independently verified. Arca and/or certain of its affiliates and/or clients may now, or in the future, hold a financial interest in investments that are the same as or substantially similar to the investments discussed in this commentary. No claims are made as to the profitability of such financial interests, now, in the past or in the future and Arca and/or its clients may sell such financial interests at any time. The information provided herein is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy any securities, or a solicitation to provide investment advisory services.

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