What's Driving Token Prices? December 18, 2024

Katie Talati
Dec 18, 2024

Join Katie Talati, Arca’s Head of Research, weekly on Wednesday at 4PM EST / 1PM PST as she shares notable token activity over the past week and her insights on what market events drove these token price movements.

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  • AVAX (-7%) - Layer-1 protocol Avalanche released its Avalanche9000 upgrade on Monday, which instituted new tokenomics for the project. Avalanche uses a modular architecture whereby it has three main chains that execute the core smart contract functions; subnet chains can be launched on top of these three main chains (think of them like layer-2s) to achieve greater speeds and lower costs. Previously, to launch a subnet, users had to stake 2,000 AVAX and sync with all three of the main chains. The new upgrade eliminates this stake amount and only requires subnets to communicate back to one of the main chains, reducing overhead for teams to build on Avalanche. Avalanche also announced a $250M raise from Galaxy, Dragonfly, and Parafi in support of the Avalanche9000 upgrade.
  • AI16Z (-4%) - This week, Stanford University’s Future of Digital Currency Initiative (FDCI), announced it has partnered with the AI agent project ai16z. AI16Z was originally created to be an on-chain venture fund (hence the name) but has found product-market fit as the Eliza Framework, the most widely used AI agent framework, has been forked thousands of times with the explosion in AI agents. AI16Z accepts donations from teams that create AI agents using Eliza and has since built up a healthy pool of assets valued at ~$21.3M. The partnership means that researchers at Stanford can more closely study AI agents to develop trust mechanisms and how agents can self-govern and coordinate with each other. 
  • POL/AAVE (-17%/+22%) - Last week, a governance proposal on Layer-2 protocol Polygon sparked outrage across DeFi and triggered an opposing governance proposal on DeFi protocol Aave. The initial proposal from Polygon recommended that assets in the project’s bridge (sitting on the Ethereum mainnet) should be made “productive” by depositing them into DeFi protocols such as Morpho and Yearn Finance. The problem with this idea is that the $1.3B in assets technically serves as the backing for pegged assets on Polygon’s L,2 leading to a double-dipping problem. In response to this proposal, lend/borrow protocol Aave, which is deployed on Ethereum and Polygon, proposed dropping all LTVs on Polygon to 0%, essentially shutting off the Aave protocol on Polygon. As we’ve discussed in the past, bridged assets are super risky, and there have been several high-profile bridge hacks over the years that have drained users' assets. As a result, the entire crypto community has become involved in this conversation. Nothing has been finalized in either community, but expect the debate to continue over the coming weeks.
    DISCLAIMER: This commentary is not intended to be investment advice, investment research, or a recommendation. Please consult your investment professional for your own circumstances."

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Disclaimer: This commentary is provided as general information only and is in no way intended as investment advice, investment research, legal advice, tax advice, a research report, or a recommendation. Any decision to invest or take any other action with respect to any investments discussed in this commentary may involve risks not discussed, and therefore, such decisions should not be based solely on the information contained in this document. Please consult your own financial/legal/tax professional.

Statements in this communication may include forward-looking information and/or may be based on various assumptions. The forward-looking statements and other views or opinions expressed are those of the author, and are made as of the date of this publication. Actual future results or occurrences may differ significantly from those anticipated and there is no guarantee that any particular outcome will come to pass. The statements made herein are subject to change at any time. Arca disclaims any obligation to update or revise any statements or views expressed herein. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results and there can be no assurance that any future results will be realized. Some or all of the information provided herein may be or be based on statements of opinion. In addition, certain information provided herein may be based on third-party sources, which is believed to be accurate, but has not been independently verified. Arca and/or certain of its affiliates and/or clients may now, or in the future, hold a financial interest in investments that are the same as or substantially similar to the investments discussed in this commentary. No claims are made as to the profitability of such financial interests, now, in the past or in the future and Arca and/or its clients may sell such financial interests at any time. The information provided herein is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy any securities, or a solicitation to provide investment advisory services.

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