--- title: This Stock Market Move Is Impossible to Ignore description: This week’s Two Satoshis covers a historic stock market melt-up, the forces behind it, and what it may signal for crypto. image: https://www.ar.ca/hubfs/_Two%20sats%20April%2020%202026.png --- [![email-sig-logowhite](https://www.ar.ca/hs-fs/hubfs/email-sig-logowhite.png?width=102&height=96&name=email-sig-logowhite.png "email-sig-logowhite")](https://www.ar.ca/) [![Get in Touch](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/4536350/28ac2c2f-186c-436f-9682-1169cf946ad3.png)](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/4536350/28ac2c2f-186c-436f-9682-1169cf946ad3) ** ** ** [![Arca](https://www.ar.ca/hs-fs/hubfs/arca_square_576x576.png?width=60&height=30&name=arca_square_576x576.png "Arca")](https://www.ar.ca/) [![Get in Touch](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/4536350/28ac2c2f-186c-436f-9682-1169cf946ad3.png)](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/4536350/28ac2c2f-186c-436f-9682-1169cf946ad3) ** ** ** Search **Menu** ** ** [![Data Room](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/4536350/72e2934a-0f70-4634-897e-b99fd4807a9b.png)](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/4536350/72e2934a-0f70-4634-897e-b99fd4807a9b) [![Get in Touch](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/4536350/28ac2c2f-186c-436f-9682-1169cf946ad3.png)](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/4536350/28ac2c2f-186c-436f-9682-1169cf946ad3) ![](https://www.ar.ca/hubfs/Blog/Thats%20Our%202%20Satoshis/Branding/2-Sats-Header.png) [Market Recap](https://www.ar.ca/blog/tag/market-recap) | # This Stock Market Move Is Impossible to Ignore [![Jeff Dorman, CFA](https://www.ar.ca/hubfs/Jeff%20Dorman.png)](https://www.ar.ca/blog/author/jeff-dorman-cfa) Written by [Jeff Dorman, CFA](https://www.ar.ca/blog/author/jeff-dorman-cfa) Apr 20, 2026 ******![Thats Our 2 Satoshis Logo](https://www.ar.ca/hs-fs/hubfs/Thats%20Our%202%20Satoshis%20Logo.png?width=300&name=Thats%20Our%202%20Satoshis%20Logo.png)****** ![WoW 2026-04-20](https://www.ar.ca/hs-fs/hubfs/WoW%202026-04-20.png?width=712&height=473&name=WoW%202026-04-20.png) *Source: TradingView, CNBC, Bloomberg, Messari*   **What a Stock Rally**  Yes, I know this is a crypto newsletter, and yes, I know I’ve spent most of the past 2 years deriding Coinbase and crypto brokers for only talking about macro instead of educating investors about the idiosyncratic events happening in DeFi and RWA tokenization… but I can’t help but talk about the equity rally over the past few weeks. It has been truly historic. Granted, with the advent of 0DTE options and Robinhood’s stranglehold over retail equity investors, we’re witnessing once-in-a-generation events multiple times per year, but this rally was still breathtaking and one-of-a-kind. Below are some charts that I found fascinating: 1. I’m on record multiple times over the past 7 years saying, “[Middle East Wars don’t matter for markets](https://x.com/jdorman81/status/2028490005522637103?s=20),” as empirical data supports how to invest (or ignore) a Middle East conflict. According to Deutsche Bank, historical data show it usually takes about three weeks (15 trading days) for markets to bottom after a geopolitical shock, followed by another 3-4 weeks to recover those losses. While this recent episode saw a big dip in week four, extending slightly beyond the 75th percentile of historical geopolitical losses at this point, the subsequent rebound has been impressive, with the market gaining +10% over the last ten trading days. ![Figure 1 S&P 500](https://www.ar.ca/hs-fs/hubfs/Figure%201%20S%26P%20500.png?width=656&height=415&name=Figure%201%20S%26P%20500.png) 2. The last 10 days have been unlike any 10-day period in the market since 1950, with the 10% return ranking in the 99.7th percentile of all 10-day returns. ![S&P 500 rolling 10 day returns](https://www.ar.ca/hs-fs/hubfs/S%26P%20500%20rolling%2010%20day%20returns.png?width=649&height=432&name=S%26P%20500%20rolling%2010%20day%20returns.png) The S&P 500 finished up more than 3% for 3 weeks in a row. This has happened only twice in history, at the '82 lows and after COVID. Stocks were up 33.9% and 32.3% a year later after those signals. ![S&P 500 Weekly Gains](https://www.ar.ca/hs-fs/hubfs/S%26P%20500%20Weekly%20Gains.png?width=678&height=254&name=S%26P%20500%20Weekly%20Gains.png) The NASDAQ saw a 13th consecutive daily climb, a winning streak not seen since early 1992. Looking back over the NASDAQ's 55-year history, only three other periods have seen longer winning streaks: 16 days in 1985, 19 days in 1979, and 15 days in 1977. This places the current run in an impressive historical context. ![Figure 1 NASDAQ](https://www.ar.ca/hs-fs/hubfs/Figure%201%20NASDAQ.png?width=655&height=322&name=Figure%201%20NASDAQ.png) 3. Call volumes went bananas, but that is the new norm now that Robinhood retail traders are turning the stock market into a casino. ![Nasdaq Call Volume](https://www.ar.ca/hs-fs/hubfs/Nasdaq%20Call%20Volume.png?width=630&height=350&name=Nasdaq%20Call%20Volume.png)                                                                                                  Source: [Zerohedge](https://x.com/zerohedge/status/2045172340267348392?s=20) 4. Uh oh. Hedge funds started the week more bearish than they were at the peak of the Liberation Day bear market in March 2025. That’s not a good recipe for success given the market rally. ![Overall Prime Book Chart](https://www.ar.ca/hs-fs/hubfs/Overall%20Prime%20Book%20Chart.png?width=497&height=335&name=Overall%20Prime%20Book%20Chart.png)                                                                       *Source: Goldman Sachs ![BoA Global Research](https://www.ar.ca/hs-fs/hubfs/BoA%20Global%20Research.png?width=557&height=325&name=BoA%20Global%20Research.png)* We've now had 9 weeks in a row of more bears than bulls on AAII.*  ![9 weeks Bears than Bulls](https://www.ar.ca/hs-fs/hubfs/9%20weeks%20Bears%20than%20Bulls.png?width=608&height=238&name=9%20weeks%20Bears%20than%20Bulls.png)* ![Sentiments Votes](https://www.ar.ca/hs-fs/hubfs/Sentiments%20Votes.png?width=696&height=104&name=Sentiments%20Votes.png)*                                                                                                     Source: [Carson Group](https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/2044938742960406877?s=20) *Goldman Sachs' most shorted stocks were up 24% since March 30th.  ![Goldman sachs chart](https://www.ar.ca/hs-fs/hubfs/Goldman%20sachs%20chart.png?width=645&height=348&name=Goldman%20sachs%20chart.png)                                                                               Source: Zerohedge 5. The short squeeze has been epic. CTAs bought more than $86Bn in global equities over the past five sessions, one of the biggest buying sprees on record. And Goldman Sachs’ futures strategies desk has a model that expects an additional $70Bn of buying in the next five sessions.  ![Global CTA positioning](https://www.ar.ca/hs-fs/hubfs/Global%20CTA%20positioning.png?width=642&height=331&name=Global%20CTA%20positioning.png)                                                                      *Source: Goldman Sachs * 6. The 8 best days for the S&P 500 during President Trump's second term have all been “TACO trade” rallies, with sharp reversals from the president on Tariffs driving the biggest gains in 2025 and reversals on the Iran War driving gains in 2026.  ![Creative Planning Chart](https://www.ar.ca/hs-fs/hubfs/Creative%20Planning%20Chart.png?width=542&height=398&name=Creative%20Planning%20Chart.png)                                                                       * Source: Creative Planning * 7. Despite lots of prognosticators calling for a stock market crash when the “bubble” bursts, there really isn’t much evidence of a bubble in equities. The P/E multiple is down 18% (pretty rare) while EPS growth continues to trend higher.   ![Exhibit 1 and 2](https://www.ar.ca/hs-fs/hubfs/Exhibit%201%20and%202.png?width=336&height=844&name=Exhibit%201%20and%202.png) Meanwhile, the Nasdaq forward P/E ratio is below the 10-year average. ![5 year lookback](https://www.ar.ca/hs-fs/hubfs/5%20year%20lookback.png?width=665&height=322&name=5%20year%20lookback.png)*                                                            *Source: *[*Revere Asset Management*](https://x.com/ConnorJBates_/status/2045111034902466632?s=20)  * And 84% of S&P 500 companies have beaten revenue estimates to date for Q1, which is above the 5-year average of 70% and above the 10-year average of 67%.   ![FactSet chart](https://www.ar.ca/hs-fs/hubfs/FactSet%20chart.png?width=585&height=398&name=FactSet%20chart.png)                                                                                  Source: FactSet 8. The only saving grace for bears might be this. Historically, some of the biggest weekly rallies have occurred during massive bear markets. So if you’re hoping this is just a bear market rally, you might consider sharing this chart with people. ![Bear Market History chart](https://www.ar.ca/hs-fs/hubfs/Bear%20Market%20History%20chart.png?width=501&height=564&name=Bear%20Market%20History%20chart.png)                                                                     *Source: *[*Some bear who is really scrambling right now*](https://x.com/modestproposal1/status/2045191192095162759?s=20)  Now, what does all of this mean for digital assets? Honestly, I have no idea. Many crypto assets have staged modest rallies the past three weeks as well, but the upside beta versus equities has been pretty underwhelming, especially when you consider how much downside beta this market experienced from October through February. Retail attention has been heavily concentrated in equities and commodities at the expense of digital assets for much of this year. Pretty much all correlations between digital assets and equities broke down on October 10th, but ETH has basically tracked the NASDAQ for the past month. Still, a healthy overall equity market is generally better for digital assets than a weak market. ![Trading View](https://www.ar.ca/hs-fs/hubfs/Trading%20View.png?width=622&height=356&name=Trading%20View.png)                                                                                Source: TradingView Meanwhile, Michael Saylor and Strategy (MSTR) have almost single-handedly been supporting Bitcoin (BTC), as they continue to sell their 11.5% preferred (STRC) in ATM offerings anytime STRC trades above $100 (which happened for 2 weeks prior to STRC going ex-dividend on April 15th), resulting in ~$4 Bn of Bitcoin purchases over the past three weeks. I don’t have much of a conclusion other than this has been one hell of a run for stocks, a pretty underwhelming rally for crypto, and an absolutely punishing stretch for macro and long/short hedge funds.  ![STRC Bitcoin Quant](https://www.ar.ca/hs-fs/hubfs/STRC%20Bitcoin%20Quant.png?width=533&height=343&name=STRC%20Bitcoin%20Quant.png)                                                                             * Source:*[* BitcoinQuant*](https://bitcoinquant.co/preferred-equity)  I don’t have much of a conclusion other than this has been one hell of a run for stocks, a pretty underwhelming rally for crypto, and an absolutely punishing stretch for macro and long/short hedge funds.    ***And That’s Our Two Satoshis! ****Thanks for reading everyone! Questions or comments, just let us know.*   **The Arca Portfolio Management Team** *Jeff Dorman, CFA - Chief Investment Officer* *Katie Talati - Director of Research* *Sasha Fleyshman - Portfolio Manager* *David Nage - Portfolio Manager* *Wes Hansen - Director of Trading and Operations* *Alex Woodard - Associate, Research* *Christopher Macpherson - Research Analyst* *Andrew Masotti - Associate, Trading and Operations* *Joey Reinberg, Associate, Trading and Operations*     **To learn more or talk to us about investing in digital assets and cryptocurrency** **call us now at [(424) 289-8068](tel:+14242898068).** ### Subscribe For the Latest Blockchain News & Analysis     Disclaimer: The views expressed here are those of the author, and is not investment advice. This commentary is provided as general information only and is in no way intended as investment advice, investment research, legal advice, tax advice, a research report, or a recommendation. Any decision to invest or take any other action with respect to any investments discussed in this commentary may involve risks not discussed, and therefore, such decisions should not be based solely on the information contained in this communication. Please consult your own financial/legal/tax professional. Statements in this communication may include forward-looking information and/or may be based on various assumptions. The Arca Funds, its affiliates, and/or clients may hold a position in any investment discussed as part of this communication, where any such investment is based on Arca’s proprietary research analytics. Actual future results or occurrences may differ significantly from those anticipated and there is no guarantee that any particular outcome will come to pass. The statements made in this commentary are subject to change at any time. Arca disclaims any obligation to update or revise any statements or views expressed in this commentary. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results and there can be no assurance that any future results will be realized. Some or all of the information provided  may be based on statements of opinion. In addition, certain information  may be based on third-party sources, which information is believed to be accurate, but has not been independently verified.  This commentary is not intended to be an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy any securities, or a solicitation to provide investment advisory services. Previous Story [← What's Driving Token Prices? April 15, 2026](https://www.ar.ca/blog/whats-driving-token-prices-april-15-2026) [** ](https://www.ar.ca/blog) Next Story [What's Driving Token Prices? April 22, 2026 →](https://www.ar.ca/blog/whats-driving-token-prices-april-22-2026) ## You May Also Like These Stories on Market Recap [![](https://www.ar.ca/hubfs/Two%20sats%20July%206%202026.png) ](https://www.ar.ca/blog/crypto-green-shoots-are-sprouting) [Market Recap](https://www.ar.ca/blog/tag/market-recap) ### [Crypto Green Shoots Are Sprouting](https://www.ar.ca/blog/crypto-green-shoots-are-sprouting) Jul 6, 2026 | 1 min read [![](https://www.ar.ca/hubfs/Two%20sats%20June%2029%202026%20%281%29.png) ](https://www.ar.ca/blog/securitize-the-most-important-rwa-stock-no-one-has-heard-about-yet) [Market Recap](https://www.ar.ca/blog/tag/market-recap) ### [Securitize - The Most Important RWA Stock No One Has Heard About Yet](https://www.ar.ca/blog/securitize-the-most-important-rwa-stock-no-one-has-heard-about-yet) Jun 29, 2026 | 1 min read [![](https://www.ar.ca/hubfs/_Two%20sats%20June%2022%202026.png) ](https://www.ar.ca/blog/galaxy-digital-glxy-how-a-distressed-mining-site-buyout-became-both-a-pot-of-gold-and-an-identity-crisis) [Market Recap](https://www.ar.ca/blog/tag/market-recap) ### [Galaxy Digital (GLXY): How a Distressed Mining Site Buyout Became Both a Pot of Gold and an Identity Crisis](https://www.ar.ca/blog/galaxy-digital-glxy-how-a-distressed-mining-site-buyout-became-both-a-pot-of-gold-and-an-identity-crisis) Jun 22, 2026 | 1 min read ### Arca Los Angeles I New York (424) 400-7444 info@ar.ca [![LinkedIn](https://www.ar.ca/hubfs/LinkedIn.png "LinkedIn")](https://www.linkedin.com/company/arcafinance/mycompany/) [![Twitter](https://www.ar.ca/hubfs/Twitter.png "Twitter")](https://twitter.com/arca) [![Youtube](https://www.ar.ca/hubfs/Youtube.png "Youtube")](https://www.youtube.com/c/Arcafinance) ### Contact Us Copyright © 2025 Arca Holdings. All Rights Reserved.  |  [Important Disclosures](https://www.ar.ca/important-disclosures) ```json { "@context" : "http://schema.org", "@type" : "VideoObject", "contentUrl" : "https://youtu.be/hHdcrzD7_0w", "description" : "Meet the founders of Arca and learn about what inspired them to join the digital asset ecosystem. Rayne Steinberg – Co-Founder & Chief Executive Officer Jeff Dorman – Co-Founder & Chief Investment Officer Phil Liu – Co-Founder & Chief Legal Officer.", "duration" : "PT4M13S", "embedUrl" : "https://www.youtube.com/embed/hHdcrzD7_0w", "name" : "Meet the Founders of Arca", "thumbnailUrl" : "https://i.ytimg.com/vi/hHdcrzD7_0w/default.jpg", "uploadDate" : "2022-02-15T15:49:56Z" } ``` ```json { "@context" : "https://schema.org", "@type" : "SiteNavigationElement", "Name" : [ "HOME", "Hedge-Funds", "Bitcoin-Fund", "Blog", "About", "Team", "Careers", "Data Room", "Get in Touch" ], "Url" : [ "https://www.ar.ca/", "https://www.ar.ca/arca-hedge-funds", "https://www.ar.ca/ai-bitcoin-fund", "https://www.ar.ca/blog", "https://www.ar.ca/about", "https://www.ar.ca/arca-team", "https://www.ar.ca/careers", "https://arcafunds.hvstprivate.com/", "https://www.ar.ca/contact?hsCtaTracking=28ac2c2f-186c-436f-9682-1169cf946ad3%7C63e370f0-aacd-4463-8bce-3616a7b4b7f3" ] } ``` ```json { "@context" : "https://schema.org/", "@type" : "WebSite", "name" : "Ar", "potentialAction" : { "@type" : "SearchAction", "query-input" : "required name=search_term_string", "target" : "https://www.ar.ca/search?q={search_term_string}" }, "url" : "https://www.ar.ca/" } ``` ```json { "@context" : "https://schema.org/", "@type" : "WebPage", "name" : "Ar", "speakable" : { "@type" : "SpeakableSpecification", "xpath" : [ "/html/head/title", "/html/head/meta[@name='description']/@content" ] }, "url" : "https://www.ar.ca/" } ``` ```json { "@context" : "https://schema.org", "@type" : "Organization", "alternateName" : "Ar", "logo" : "https://www.ar.ca/Logo.png", "name" : "Ar", "url" : "https://www.ar.ca/" } ``` ```json { "@context" : "https://schema.org", "@id" : "", "@type" : "LocalBusiness", "address" : { "@type" : "PostalAddress", "addressCountry" : "US", "addressLocality" : "New York", "addressRegion" : "CA", "postalCode" : "90066", "streetAddress" : "Los Angeles" }, "geo" : { "@type" : "GeoCoordinates", "latitude" : 33.9697897, "longitude" : -118.2468148 }, "image" : "https://www.ar.ca/hs-fs/hubfs/email-sig-logowhite.png?width=102&name=email-sig-logowhite.png", "name" : "Arca", "openingHoursSpecification" : { "@type" : "OpeningHoursSpecification", "closes" : "23:59", "dayOfWeek" : [ "Monday", "Tuesday", "Wednesday", "Thursday", "Friday", "Saturday", "Sunday" ], "opens" : "00:00" }, "priceRange" : "$", "sameAs" : [ "https://twitter.com/arca", "https://www.linkedin.com/company/arcafinance" ], "telephone" : "(424) 400 7444", "url" : "https://www.ar.ca/" } ``` ```json { "@context" : "http://schema.org", "@type" : "VideoObject", "description" : "Rebecca Rettig, General Counsel of Aave Marc Boiron, General Counsel of dYdX Colleen Sullivan, Co-founder and CEO of CMT Digital Marvin Ammori, CLO at Uniswap Phil Liu, Co-founder and CLO of Arca", "duration" : "PT50M59S", "embedUrl" : "https://www.youtube.com/embed/hTc-kWa9hM8", "interactionCount" : "121", "name" : "Regulation: Clarity on the Horizon", "thumbnailUrl" : "https://i.ytimg.com/vi/hTc-kWa9hM8/default.jpg", "uploadDate" : "2021-05-26T13:29:46Z" } ``` ```json { "@context" : "http://schema.org", "@type" : "VideoObject", "description" : "Andrew Peel, Head of Digital Asset Markets at Morgan Stanley Jennifer Murphy, COO of Western Asset Management Tom Jessop, President of Fidelity Digital Assets Tim Davis, Principal of Deloitte Subhanker Sinha, Head of Blockchain, Digital at BNY Mellon", "duration" : "PT47M54S", "embedUrl" : "https://www.youtube.com/embed/Wx1LEII47iM", "interactionCount" : "242", "name" : "The Current Institutional Adoption Wave", "thumbnailUrl" : "https://i.ytimg.com/vi/Wx1LEII47iM/default.jpg", "uploadDate" : "2021-05-26T15:15:41Z" } ``` ```json { "@context" : "https://schema.org", "@type" : "BlogPosting", "author" : { "@type" : "Organization", "name" : "Ar" }, "dateModified" : "2021-07-12", "datePublished" : "2021-06-28", "description" : "Blockchain commentary and analysis written for sophisticated investors - by professional investors", "headline" : "We Should Appreciate Bitcoin More, but it’s Not Defensive", "image" : "https://f.hubspotusercontent00.net/hub/4536350/hubfs/Thats%20Our%20Two%20Sathoshis%20%2812%29-2.png?width=380&name=Thats%20Our%20Two%20Sathoshis%20%2812%29-2.png", "mainEntityOfPage" : { "@id" : "https://www.ar.ca/blog", "@type" : "WebPage" }, "publisher" : { "@type" : "Organization", "logo" : { "@type" : "ImageObject", "url" : "https://www.ar.ca/hs-fs/hubfs/email-sig-logowhite.png?width=102&name=email-sig-logowhite.png" }, "name" : "Market Recap" } } ```